Sunday, September 25, 2016

How much Wealth Can I, a 32 year Old Create with a Monthly Investment of Rs.10000?

Full and Actual Question: I am 32.  One child.  Salary is 36K.  Saving 12.5k in public provident fund. Paying 12.5k for a loan. I want to invest other 10k, but how?


Answer:

You seem to have an investible surplus of Rs.10,000 per month which is quite decent. Your present age of 32 also very good with an active investing life of about 33 years and another 10-15 years even if you do not invest you may keep alive your past investments. It would have been much better had you asked this question when you were 22 years old. Anyway, let us keep a target of about 85 years as your investment life, which is simply superb.
Try to get rid of your debt repayment obligation of Rs.12,500 per month as soon as possible and after that try to avoid borrowing money. Please destroy the credit card(s), if you have any, immediately.
I am surprised to see that there is no significant allocation for home expenses? Perhaps your spouse is taking care of them?

Open a SIP in a well-diversified index mutual fund or invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for the next 33 years. Do not stop this investment for any reason whatsoever. See below what magic the ‘Miracle of Compounding’ can do for you.
Example Showing Investment Results in 33 Years
If you follow this simple advice keep invested for the time frame suggested, when you look back at the age of 65 you would have accumulated a net wealth of Rs.7.92 crores, after an assumed annual inflation of 10%, which is very high and long term stock annual market returns of 15% which is very reasonable.
If you keep the investment alive, without disturbing for another 20 years, you would have become a really rich and wealthy person with a net wealth of Rs.98.61 Crores.
Happy Investing and Getting Rich Soon!

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Saturday, September 24, 2016

How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of Shares?

calculate intrinsic value of share before you buy stocks

Before deciding to buy stocks, an investor needs to know what is the value of the share he or she intends to buy first. This leads to questions like what is the meaning of intrinsic value, intrinsic value of a share and finally, "How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value Shares?". 

So let us address the concepts one by one.

Intrinsic Value

Every thing in this world has an intrinsic value. For example one 500 rupee note has a value of 500 one rupees. Not a penny more or, not a penny less.

calculate intrinsic value of share before you buy stocks

But how can we say this with conviction?

Well will any same person take a 500 rupee note and exchange it for more than five 100 rupee notes? Similar will we accept four 100 rupee notes in return for a 500 rupee note?

Therefore we can safely conclude that the intrinsic value of a five hundred rupee note is equal to 500 one rupees or five hundred rupee notes.

Intrinsic Value of Share

As with the five hundred rupee note, a share also has an intrinsic value. Any wise investor, who knows the inherent value of a share will never buy the stock above it's intrinsic value. She will be glad to buy the share if it is trading in the stock market below its intrinsic value. Buy is an understatement, in fact, she will pounce on the opportunity and grab the shares with both her hands.

But, is it possible that shares can be available below their intrinsic values?

Of course yes!

The stock market is a highly irrational place.

Now the discussion is getting excited with the prospect of being able to buy stocks below their fundamental values, is it not?

So, now it is important for us to know how to calculate the intrinsic value of shares, and let us address the question.

Calculating Intrinsic Value of a Share


The intrinsic value of the share of a company is essentially calculated based on two factors as follows:
  1. Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio
  2. Price to Book Value (P2BV) Ratio

calculate intrinsic value of share before you buy stocks
Example Calculation of Intrinsic Values of Shares of NMDC and SJVN

Let us consider a live example of SJVN Ltd. and NMDC Ltd., based on the facts existing on 23rd September 2016.
In case of NMDC Ltd., to be on the safe side we have taken the minimum of the two intrinsic values of Rs.68.80 and 113.34, and rejected it. However please note that NMDC Ltd. is a wonderful company. I continue to buy its shares even today. Its PE Ratio deteriorated on account of two recent and temporary developments as follows:
  1. The EPS deteriorated steeply on the back of a meltdown in global commodity prices. The price of iron ore has recovered to a great extent and I firmly believe it regain further.
  2. The Indian stock markets have rallied in the recent past and pushed up the prices of all the shares across the board, which has pushed up the PE Ratio.

Caution:

Investment decisions are not simply based on the intrinsic value calculations shown above. A rigorous investigation of the company’s performance and prevailing market conditions described in the article “What are the Factors to be Considered Before Investing in a Company?.

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Conclusion

To conclude, Price to earnings and Price to Book Value Ratios are the two key metrics employed in finding the intrinsic value of the shares of a company. We also learnt how to calculate the intrinsic value of share.