Is Galloping Eicher Motors' Share Price Justified?

 Actual Question:

 How did the share price of Eicher Motors shoot up to INR15800? What triggered this steep increase?

Answer:

Dear Friend!

I don’t know from where you got the number INR.15800 with reference to Eicher Motors Ltd.’s share. The current price is Rs.29,180 a piece.

Of course the price of the share has been rising continuously and has risen by about Rs.6000 (about 26%) in a span of just three months.

The reason for the continuous price is the bullish ‘Buy’ calls given by almost every brokerage in the country with great company performance expectations.

But, is all this euphoria really justified?

Is it fair to expect the company to deliver performance in exact synch with market expectations?

There is no doubt that Eicher Motors is a wonderful company, but while the share price can soar 26% in three months easily, it is impossible to deliver rise in the turnover and profits 26% in three months!

Please look at the graph below:

You can see how dramatically the gap between the EPS and Price Rise is widening.

Now let us focus whether the Eicher Motors share is in the buy zone as per value investing norms.

We can see that Eicher Motor’s share is very, very expensive and unaffordable. It is not wise to invest in any share at such high valuations.

Please note that it is not the fault of the company - it is the market’s fault. The company is delivering excellent results, but the market is unjustifiably enthusiastic.

In conclusion the galloping price of Eicher Motors Ltd.'s share price is entirely unjustified and unsustainable and imposes an unfair burden on the company to ever deliver superlative performance.

Suggested Further Reading:

• Margin of Safety
• How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value Shares?
• You Only Find Out Who is Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out - Warren Buffett’s Quote

Thank you,

With Best Regards,

Anand

Should we Hold Rural Electrification Shares after 10% Price Fall?

Dear Friend!

Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) Ltd. is a wonderful company.

I too own 564 shares as on date at an average holding cost of Rs.125.07.

Last week, while I was on vacation in Goa, I received two sms alerts informing me that the scrip has corrected by 5.58 and 5.08%, respectively.

Many people might have been spooked by such alerts, but not value investors. I did not panic at all, for I kew very well that REC is a wonderful company and nothing could go fundamentally wrong with it so suddenly.

After returning from the holiday I investigated the cause for the steep and sudden fall.

I was relieved to fund out that the cause for the market panic was a fairly large provision for contingency of Rs.616.19 crores (most likely towards bad debts) and consequent dip in the quarterly profit after tax to the extent of 24.80% compared to the previous quarter.

Tighter regulations and close monitoring of ‘Non Performing Assets (NPAs)’ from the last couple of years is forcing all financial institutions to come clean on their NPAs. Banks especially public sector banks have been making huge provisions for many quarters in the past. REC and PFC also have been making such provisions, though to a lesser extent.

Please see the following table for the provisions made in the last three quarters:

You can see for yourself that though fairly large, this provision is certainly not alarming, nor is the dip in the profits. REC continues to maintain very strong PBT and PAT margins of over 32% and 22% respectively.

In conclusion let me reiterate that the fundamentals of REC are intact, that there is no need to panic, please do hold the shares you already have and continue to buy as the scrip is available at discounted prices with a price to earnings (PE) ratio of 6.02 and a price to book value ratio of 0.65.

Thank you,

With Best Regards,

Anand

To Invest Do I need to Know Beta and Option Pricing?

Investors Happy that they Don't Know Beta and Option Pricing

"To invest successfully, you need not know understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing, or emerging markets. You may, in fact be, better off knowing nothing of these. That of course, is not prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices."

Warren Buffett

What Stocks I invested in January 2017 and How I Selected Them

In this article I shall describe the stocks I have invested in yesterday for January 2017 and how I ended up selecting them. While the theme for investments in the last few months had been buying assets at a discount, this month the theme is “Balance”. The balance is between ‘Price to Book Value’, ‘Price to Earnings’ and the product of the first two. We are already familiar with the thresholds for these three parameters but still let us list them:

1. Price to Book Value (P2BV): Not more than 1.5
2. Price to Earnings (PE): Not more than 15
3. Product or combination of the above two ratios (P2BV*PE): Not more than 22.5

The stocks evaluated on the above criteria were all the 15 serious, individual shares figuring in our ‘Portfolio 2K15’, other than the exchange traded funds.

As there are three parameters or criteria, the investible sum had been determined as a multiple of three. It could have been Rs.900, 1800, 2100, 2700 and so on. I had selected Rs.21000. This figure suits many middle class wage-earning Indians. I allocated this sum of Rs.21000 equally among the three criteria at Rs.7000 each.

Kindly note that no efforts were either invested nor required for calculating the P2BV and PE Ratios of the stocks; they are readily available on many financial websites. I have taken the figures from “Economic Times”.

The three criteria are individually and independently applied to the said 15 stocks as follows:

Price to Book Value Ratio:

Criterion: P2BV; Threshold: ≤ 1.5	Max permitted	Current P2BV Ratios	Discount in P2BV	Weightage (% of individual scrip discount to total of positive discounts)	Allocation of Individual Investible Amount Rs. 7000 as per the weightage
1	NHPC	0.95	0.55	7.63%	534
2	PFC	0.45	1.05	14.56%	1019
3	REC	0.43	1.07	14.84%	1039
4	NMDC	1.77	-0.27
5	CAIRN	0.93	0.57	7.91%	553
6	SJVN	1.12	0.38	5.27%	369
7	Neyveli Lignite	0.89	0.61	8.46%	592
8	ONGC	0.93	0.57	7.91%	553
9	NALCO	1.32	0.18	2.50%	175
10	MOIL	1.84	-0.34
11	HZL	2.84	-1.34
12	OIL	1.22	0.28	3.88%	272
13	GE SHIP	0.68	0.82	11.37%	796
14	VEDANTA	1.44	0.06	0.83%	58
15	SCI	0.43	1.07	14.84%	1039
	Sum of Positive Discounts		7.21	100.00%	7000

A close examination of the above table reveals that those stocks that are not offering a positive discount in the P2BV (the positive number obtained from deducting the current P2BV from 1.5) are eliminated and their negative discounts excluded from counting the total discount of 7.21. The individual weightages are arrived at by dividing the individual discounts with the total of positive discounts, of 7.21. The investible sum set a part for the P2BV criterion of Rs.7000 has been allocated to each individual scrip based on this weightage.

In simple terms we have allocated maximum amount to the scrip offering maximum positive discount and least sum to the share offering the least discount.

Price to Earnings Ratio:

A similar exercise is carried out with the ‘Price to Earnings (PE) criterion and the results are as follows:

Criterion PE; Max permitted PE = 15	Scrip	Current PE	Discount in PE	Weightage	Allocation of Investible Amount Rs. 7000
1	NHPC	10.46	4.54	11.47%	803
2	PFC	5.08	9.92	25.07%	1755
3	REC	2.16	12.84	32.45%	2271
4	NMDC	15.79	-0.79	0	0
5	CAIRN	96.59	-81.59	0	0
6	SJVN	9.16	5.84	14.76%	1033
7	Neyveli Lignite	13.13	1.87	4.73%	331
8	ONGC	16.98	-1.98	-5.00%	0
9	NALCO	21.21	-6.21	0	0
10	MOIL	40.88	-25.88	0	0
11	HZL	15.39	-0.39	0	0
12	OIL	14.04	0.96	2.43%	170
13	GE SHIP	11.98	3.02	7.63%	534
14	VEDANTA	14.42	0.58	1.47%	103
15	SCI	33.82	-18.82	0	0
	Sum of Positive discounts		39.57	95.00%	7000

1. Again the stock trading at the lowest PE multiple and therefore offering the maximum discount to the maximum permitted PE multiple of 15 had got the maximum allocation of the investible sum.
2. For example REC with the lowest PE of 2.16 and maximum discount of 12.84 (15-2.16) got the maximum allocation of 32.45%; Vedanta with maximum PE multiple of 14.42 and the least discount of 0.58 ended up with the least allocation of 1.47%.
3. Those scrips trading above the maximum permitted PE Multiple of 15 got totally eliminated.
4. And finally some scrips got allocation under the criterion of P2BV did not get any allocation under this PE criterion – example CAIRN.

PE*P2BV Ratio:

Value Investing principles require that besides the above two criteria independently applied, the combined effect or the result of the above two criteria shall not exceed 22.5 (15*1.5 = 22.5). I applied this third condition, ascertained the discount (22.5 – actual PE*P2BV number), made the allocation based on the discount percentage and the results are as follows:

Criterion PE*P2BV; Max permitted  = 22.5	Scrip	Actual PE*P2BV Value	Discount	Weightage/ Discount %	Allocation of Investible Amount Rs. 7000
1	NHPC	9.937	12.563	11.07%	775
2	PFC	2.286	20.214	17.81%	1246
3	REC	0.9288	21.5712	19.00%	1330
4	NMDC	27.9483	-5.4483		0
5	CAIRN	89.8287	-67.3287		0
6	SJVN	10.2592	12.2408	10.78%	755
7	Neyveli Lignite	11.6857	10.8143	9.53%	667
8	ONGC	15.7914	6.7086	5.91%	414
9	NALCO	27.9972	-5.4972		0
10	MOIL	75.2192	-52.7192		0
11	HZL	43.7076	-21.2076		0
12	OIL	17.1288	5.3712	4.73%	331
13	GE SHIP	8.1464	14.3536	12.64%	885
14	VEDANTA	20.7648	1.7352	1.53%	107
15	SCI	14.5426	7.9574	7.01%	491
	Sum of Positive Discounts		113.5293	100%	7000

Sum of the three allocations:

Having completed the assessments based on the three criteria as above, we now sum-up the three amounts allocated for each scrip. Next the number of shares that can be bought is ascertained by dividing the allocated sum by the current market price of the share. Once this quantity was available I just placed the order online and bought the shares as follows:



Conclusion:

In the end I had allocated an investible sum for investment in the month of January 2017 and it resulted in the independent assessment based on three fair valuation criteria on the constituents of our Portfolio2K15 resulting in a balanced allocation. Three shares highlighted in red background and white foreground, were totally rejected and the rest 12 had all received provision depending on their merit.