Is It the Right Time to Invest in ‘Welspun India Ltd.’ Shares?

Full and Actual Question: Is It the Right Time to Invest in ‘Welspun India Ltd.’ Shares?

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Dear Mr.Abhishek Dubey

You seem to have put a lot effort behind your question. I appreciate very much.

Your question seems to springing out of the steep fall of nearly 50% in the price of the share from around Rs.100 level to the present Rs.49.70 and perhaps also the news about M&A activity surrounding the company.

Unfortunately, in ‘Value Investing’ such a situation is not the fundamental criterion on which investment decisions are made. It does not figure in my ‘ Value Investing: Portfolio 2K15’ which suggests that the company’s fundamentals prima-facie do not meet the first filter criteria of market capitalisation of a bare minimum of Rs.500 crores (US$ 75 million) and a ‘Price to Earnings Ratio’ below 10. Further, I am not happy about the company’s present focus on solar energy, which is very good for the country and the world at large but not for the companies engaged in the business, on account of cut-throat competition and poor margins.

I sincerely urge you to please read the book ‘The Intelligent Investor’ by Benjamin Graham, become a successful and safe value investor. Please do not bet on short term events, hunches and tips which will certainly will prove costly in the long run.

Thank you,

With Best Regards

Anand

Please Note: This is almost a reproduction of the question I had answered on the website ‘Quora’, which I thought could be useful to the visitors to this blog site also.

What is Negative Interest Rate?

Full Question: What is negative interest rate? Is it Helping Japan?

Interest rate is a very important economic tool in the hands of central banks. A high interest rate discourages business from borrowing and thus adds as brakes on the economy. Conversely low interest rates are supposed to spur borrowing (presumed for fresh investment) and consequently boost the economy and growth.

Interest rate is not a tool in isolation. The governments have other tools. Creating more liquidity in the system to encourage businesses to borrow and invest. Printing money, given very technical sounding name to camouflage the dirty act, ‘Quantitative Easing’ has been used for a few years in a row by the US and now being repeated by Europe and Japan, is an extreme measure of the liquidity tool.

Cutting down tax rates is a fiscal measure to promote growth.

All these and other techniques have been used governments to spur growth some times very effectively and some times with poor results. Tools have limitations. They are not panacea.

Coming back to your question “Is it helping Japan?”, it seems it is not helping much. Japan and many mature economies have been languishing for the last few years. In fact, in my opinion, the global economy has actually not recovered properly since the global economic collapse post Lehman Brothers incident in 2008. All the stimulus packages have just managed to prop up otherwise slump economies.

We must appreciate that various monetary and fiscal tools are temporary jigs that can address a sudden temporary glitch in an otherwise sound economy; they can not address deep fundamental issues like saturated economies.

US, Europe, Japan and China have reached saturation after rapid economic progress. These countries can no more grow at a rapid pace internally. For a few more decades they managed to grow by helping other developing and under developed countries. While there is tremendous potential to grow on the back of developing and underdeveloped countries there are severe limitations too! Many of these countries do not have the wherewithal to pay for the development. Many other do not have required political stability. All these factors limit the possibility of internal growth based on external activity.

In conclusion, in my opinion, in the face of many complex global challenges, low interest rates have not been helping Japan. I doubt wether rates helped other countries either. The US is showing signs of growth but we cannot attribute this to low interest rates or other measures alone. Perhaps after a prolonged recession she has returned to natural growth?

Please Note: This is almost a reproduction of the question I had answered on the website ‘Quora’, which I thought could be useful to the visitors to this blog site also.